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  • Writer's pictureDaniel Shapiro

Market Report #4

Abstraction Capital’s Market Updates provide insights into the crypto market and strategy performance. Please enjoy Market Update #4.

High Time Frame


This week was marked by significant political developments in India and Mexico, impactful economic reports, and decisive actions by central banks. The mixed results from economic indicators highlighted ongoing global economic challenges, while geopolitical tensions remained high, notably in the Middle East. This year, over 4 billion people will vote, reflecting widespread political changes and the resurgence of politicians over central bankers.


Canada and the EU began cutting rates, indicating the start of a global rate-cutting cycle. The US jobs report was mixed, with unemployment rising slightly and average hourly earnings increasing. The liquidity outlook remains bullish as Bitcoin continues to range at all-time highs.

 

Medium Time Frame

The Bitcoin price is above all critical VWAPs, and notably the 20-week moving average has continued to increase, now sitting at $61,500.  $66k remains a strong level to buy if we get there.

Global liquidity continues to decrease while stablecoin flows remain net positive. Hash ribbons remain in capitulation, indicating this is a strong time to buy from a value perspective.

 

Short Term Developments


Altcoins got destroyed over the weekend once Bitcoin rejected from $72k. Many sectors are down over 10% versus Bitcoin, and more than 20% in USD terms.

Bitcoin has to reclaim the monthly VWAP for me to consider taking longs. At the moment, my bias remains a choppy summer and a move down to the lower 1D Bollinger bands and Quarterly VWAP over the next month. Bouncing here considering how much open interest was wiped over the weekend, though, would not surprise me.

 

Cross-Asset Momentum Strategy


The strategy is currently long UNI.

1 Week Performance

0.38%

Performance since Market Report #1

1.46%

 

 

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